December 31, 2008

What SHOULD'VE Happened Last Year

As we all know, baseball isn't a game that pans out how it should . It frequently happens that the best teams on paper, don't always win. Using Bill James' Pythagorean theorem of baseball, Runs scored [squared] / (Runs scored [squared] + runs allowed [squared]), one can determine what a teams win-loss record should be based on the amount of runs they've scored and the amount they've given up. Here is what the standings would look like if this had happened last year:

American League
East:
1. 97-65 Boston Red Sox (2)
2. 94-68 Toronto Blue Jays (4)
3. 92-70 Tampa Bay Rays (1)
4. 88-74 New York Yankees (3)
5. 72-89 Baltimore Orioles (5)

Central:
1. 90-72 Chicago White Sox (1)
2. 89-73 Minnesota Twins (2)
3. 86-76 Cleveland Indians (3)
4. 78-84 Detroit Tigers (5)
5. 71-91 Kansas City Royals (4)

West:
1. 89-73 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (1)
2. 75-86 Oakland Athletics (3)
3. 75-87 Texas Rangers (2)
4. 66-97 Seattle Mariners (4)

Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays

National League:
East:
1. 94-68 Philadelphia Phillies (1)
2. 90-72 New York Mets (2)
3. 81-80 Florida Marlins (3)
4. 78-84 Atlanta Braves (4)
5. 61-100 Washington Nationals (5)

Central:
1. 100-61 Chicago Cubs (1)
2. 88-74 Milwaukee Brewers (2)
3. 87-75 St. Louis Cardinals (4)
4. 77-84 Houston Astros (3)
5. 71-91 Cincinnati Reds (5)
6. 66-96 Pittsburgh Pirates (6)

West:
1. 87-75 Los Angeles Dodgers (1)
2. 83-79 Arizona Diamondbacks (2)
3. 73-89 Colorado Rockies (3)
4. 67-95 San Francisco Giants (4)
5. 66-96 San Diego Padres (5)

Wild Card: New York Mets

A few notes on these:
  • The NL East and West were the only divisions to have the ex standings match the actual ones
  • The biggest change happened in the AL East in which 4 teams were in different places
  • The AL Central was the only division to have a different last-place team
  • In the x standings, the Cubs had the best record in baseball, as opposed to the Angels
  • The Nationals had the worst record in both
  • The Mariners were the worst AL team in both
  • The Red Sox were the best team in the AL instead of the Angels
  • The Angels had the most change (11 games) followed by Houston (9) and Toronto (8)
  • The Rays and Blue Jays moved the most in the standings, each having moved 2 spots

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