November 7, 2010

"What If?" - Cano/Kemp Trade

This is the first post in our "What If?" series. We will be taking a look at past rumored deals and ask what if they went through? What would the Yankees look like today? What would be different?

Beginning in the 2006-2007 offseason, there was a lot of speculation towards a potential Robinson Cano for Matt Kemp deal between the Yankees and Dodgers. The Yankees were desperate for outfield help with Bernie William and Gary Sheffield leaving, Hideki Matsui's legs going away, and don't even get me started on Bubba Crosby. After the '07 season it made even more sense when Joe Torre and Don Mattingly put on Dodger blue. Cano had a very close relationship to both men and people speculated it was the kind of thing they wanted to maintain. It didn't help things when Cano had a down-year in '08, hitting .271/.305/.410.

To all of us at the time however, this seemed like the usual "one young player for another young player" deal and it sort of felt like it was just going to go away within a few weeks. However, it hung around for a while and didn't actually get cut-off until after the 2008 season.

But what if it had gone through? What if Robby had gone to LA and Kemp to the Big Apple? Well let's talk about the very simplest of details first: uniform numbers. Robby currently wears #24 but switched after '06 from 22. Had he been shipped to LA, he probably would be sporting the double-twos whereas either Kemp or Joe Giardi would have to pick another number. But on to the more pressing matters...

The Yankees would be without a second basemen and would probably have to turn to the free agent market for help. Lets say this deal goes down after the 2007 season, when the rumors reached their climax. The best free agent second basemen that year were Luis Castillo, Jerry Hairston Jr., Kaz Matsui, and Mark Loretta. Now, it doesn't take much to realize how bad those four would pan out. Castillo probably would've been the most appealing out of that bunch, and well, yeah...not even gonna go there. Hairston still had some good years in him and probably could've been productive over there at second. As for Kaz and Loretta, they were at the end of their primes and have both become wash-ups since then. Clearly, none of these players come even close to what Robby has given the Yankees and what he will continue to do in the future.

While the trade would've left a void at second, the Yankees outfield would've been much stronger for the time-being. They would have Damon in left, Kemp in center, and Abreu in right. That is a damn good outfield, however, it isn't built for the long-haul. Abreu seems to be done now with '08 being his last real productive year. Damon, as we all know, was a great contributer for the Yankees, who cut him loose after the 2009 season and at the right time. Kemp too has had his struggles, hitting only .249/.310/.450 this past year.

This star-studded outfield would also have many negative effects besides aging players too. With Melky Cabrera in center, the Yankees definitely had a hole, but that weakness had a silver lining, and its name is Brett Gardner. When Cabrera began to struggle, the Yanks slotted in Gardner, and vice-versa. If the Yankees had Johnny, Matt, and Bobby, it's very unlikely that Gardner would get a real shot in the outfield and thus 2010 could've been a much different year for the Yankees in left field.

Having Kemp in the outfield also means different stories for the rest of the fielders we know and love today. Swisher was acquired after 2008 in hopes of having him as the everyday first basemen, but switched to the outfield once Teixeira came aboard. Before him, Xavier Nady was the rightfielder after having been acquired before the 2008 trade deadline. The Yankees got Nady because of the problems in their outfield which wouldn't of been there had they had Kemp. No Nady, means the Yankees probably would've gone hunting for a new rightfielder come the 2008-2009 offseason. Do they still get Swisher? Maybe, maybe not. We easily could've wound up with Brad Hawpe or maybe even Bobby Abreu for at least one year too many. Curtis Granderson also wouldn't of been acquired because there would be no gap for him to fill. The Yankees' outfield today would probably look as follows: Johnny Damon in left, Matt Kemp in center, and Brad Hawpe in right. Not pretty.

So who won this deal? Obviously the Yankees did. They were able to upgrade their outfield to the point where it stands today as one of the best in the bigs. Plus, they were able to do so without giving up the best second basemen in baseball. That is a win by any standards.

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